Forecasting of ecological risks applying the analysis of hierarchies and theory of fuzzy sets

Abstract

Methodology for estimating of aggregated risk of various ecological activities and pollution sources was developed. The rate of risk is calculated as a product of risk level r and grade of significance level i. Both factors r and i are expressed by the 11-level scale of quality, which is defined in triangular of fuzzy numbers (TFN). A model of aggregated risk of three-stage hierarchical structure was developed for grouping of risk elements. The method of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to group them. The developed methodology is applied to study of aggregative ecological risk of manufacture of sulphuric acid. Proposed approach was implemented in program system by means the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MatLab.