INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF CORRECTIONS MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING

Abstract

The paper considers the problem of refinement of forecast the electricity consumption of power system for the current month, executed through a program set the medium-term forecasting. A methodology, an algorithm and program for specifi-cation forecast electricity consumption is developed. The algorithm takes into account the value of the actual daily electrical power system, actual and predicted values of the average daily air temperature, power consumption of energy-intensive enterprises, intermonth temperature trend and weekly cycles of daily electricity consumption of the Ukrainian power system. Conducted on real data of Ukrainian power systems multiple calculations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method of refinement of the forecast electricity consumption.