Technical and Economic Comparison of Power Supply Projects Taking into Account the Prospect of Integration of Distributed Energy Sources

Abstract

The problem of justification of the optimal rated power of distribution transformers, in the process of design of power supply systems, is considered. The traditional approach in this case is the comparison of a number of alternative options, considering a set of technical and economic characteristics. It is shown, that when solving this problem, taking into account a sufficiently long planning horizon, it is necessary to take into consideration the uncertainty, at least of such factors as the dynamics in changes of the cost of electricity, the value of the electrical loads and operating cost. In modern world, an important aspect of the problem under consideration is also taking into account the general strategy of the electric power industry development. First of all, this is associated with the volume and rate of implementation of distributed generation, energy storage systems, and electric vehicles. The possibility of direct comparison of alternatives, using the net present values corresponding to each of the compared options, with the setting of the above mentioned and a number of other factors in the form of intervals is analyzed by using interval analysis. In this case, both traditional interval arithmetic and Hansen’s generalized interval arithmetic were considered. It is shown that the level of information uncertainty for interval estimates of discounted costs, especially with a planning horizon exceeding 5 years, does not allow one to rank alternatives with the sufficient level of reliability.

It has been approved that a more effective approach is the use of the apparatus of game theory for this goal. A series of experimental calculations was carried out, which took into account both the uncertainty of information and a number of different scenarios for the development of energy industry. It is shown that taking into account these factors, fundamentally affects the justification of the optimal rated power of distribution transformers in the process of power supply systems design.