Decomposition of Daily Schedule of Electric Load of Power System and the Modeling of its Components in the Short-Term Forecasting

Abstract

The methodology for decomposition of the non-stationary time series of the total electric load (TEL) into components, which characterize the influence of technological, meteorological and astronomical factors, has been described. The methodology also makes it possible to identify and evaluate the basic, trend and residual components of the developed mathematical model. There has been described the sequence of selection and algorithms for calculating components of the model, allowing to make the correct decomposition of the influence of these factors and significantly reduce the residual component of the electric load. In order to improve the accuracy of the simulation, it is proposed to create such models on the characteristic time intervals of the annual interval corresponding to different effects of the temperature of the air on the electric load. The approbation of the methodology was carried out on the real data of the JSC "Kyivenergo".