Determination of Solar Radiation Intensity as a Key Factor for Predicting the Operation of Photoelectric Panels

Abstract

This article analyzes several models of forecasting the arrival of solar radiation on the earth's surface for the possibility of more accurate forecasting of the generation of electrical energy from solar photovoltaic panels. The intensity of solar radiation at any moment of time is the most significant factor that directly affects the operation of photovoltaic panels, and the amount of energy that can be obtained for them, plays a significant role when conducting technical or economic justifications for the construction of projects. For these purposes, manufacturers of photovoltaic equipment and companies engaged in their implementation have created many "solar calculators" that allow to get results instantly, however, due to the commercial interest of the models on which these calculators are oriented, quite often they give inflated indicators that do not correspond to real values. At the same time, there are many specialized software complexes that use more accurate models of the arrival of solar radiation on the earth's surface, but the analysis carried out in the work showed that even these models tend to give a high error. The work provides an overview of the main empirically correlated models that use various meteorological indicators to predict the arrival of solar radiation, as well as three models that allow obtaining the intensity of solar radiation at any moment in time. All presented models were calculated on an annual interval and combined with open data on solar input from NASA, and for the months with the highest intensity of solar radiation, when the generation of photovoltaic panels is the largest, a comparative analysis was conducted with experimental data. On the basis of the obtained results, the comparative analysis of the results was made, errors and causes of their emergence were determined , the most accurate model was also determined, which allows obtaining data on the intensity of solar radiation with a relative error of ±5 % for the Odesa region.