Determination of Disruption Risk of the Normal Regime of the Electric Power System under Planned and Emergency Decommissioning of Electrical Equipment

Authors

  • Ye. I. Bardyk National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”
  • M. P. Bolotnyi National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”
  • O. L. Bondarenko National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31649/1997-9266-2021-155-2-54-62

Keywords:

model, fuzzy logic, electrical equipment, risk assessment, defect, failure

Abstract

The development of competitive relations in the electricity sector, the increase the number of large-scale systemic accidents in the world that have occurred in market economies, improves the importance of the reliability factor for the electric power system (EPS). In this regard, the tasks of taking into account and analyzing all risks, especially the EPS risk operation due to electrical equipment failures, which currently has a significant level of wear and depletion of resources, are relevant in power industry of Ukraine. To solve these problems, it is necessary to develop models for assessing of technical condition and risk of electrical equipment failures. Equally important are the issues of decision-making on the strategy of operation of defective electrical equipment and emergency risk assessment in the power system when the equipment is disconnected.

The conditions of functioning of modern electric power systems are analyzed. The problem of estimating the operation reliability of the power system based on the definition of risk indicators is formulated. The necessity of complex modeling of technical condition and modes of EPS for determination of quantitative indicators of emergency risk of a normal mode of EPS under electric equipment failures is substantiated. A generalized linguistic model is proposed to assess the subjective probability of electrical equipment failure under the presence of a defect. An algorithm of complex modeling of the EPS mode for estimating the emergency risk of the normal mode in case of electrical equipment failures by statistical modeling is proposed. An assessment of the subjective probability of failure of a power transformer actually functioning in the EPS has been performed. A comprehensive modeling of the EPS mode was performed to assess the emergency risk of the normal mode during emergency decommissioning of the power transformer. The advantage of the proposed development is the ability to determine the probability of failure of electrical equipment due to unsatisfactory technical condition based on the use of quality information, to form a priority for decommissioning electrical equipment based on risk indicators in the power system.

Author Biographies

Ye. I. Bardyk, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”

Cand. Sc. (Eng.), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Chair of Renewable Energy Sources

M. P. Bolotnyi, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”

Cand. Sc. (Eng.), Senior Lecturer of the Chair of Renewable Energy Sources

O. L. Bondarenko, National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”

Post-Graduate Student of the Chair of Renewable Energy Sources

References

J. Silva, J. Sumaili, R. J. Bessa, L. Seca, M. Matos, and V. Miranda, “The challenges of estimating the impact of distributed energy resources flexibility on the TSO/DSO boundary node operating points,” Computers & Operations Research, vol. 96, pp. 294-304, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2017.06.004 .

N. V. Kosterev, E. I. Bardyk, and V. V. Litvinov, “Preventive risk-management of power system for its reliability increasing,” Wseas Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 10, pp. 251-258, 2015.

H. H. Alhelou, M. Hamedani-Golshan, T. Njenda, and P. Siano, “A Survey on Power System Blackout and Cascading Events: Research Motivations and Challenges,” Energies, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1-28, 2019. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12040682 .

S. A. V. Goerdin, J. J. Smit, and R. P. Y. Mehairjan, “Monte Carlo simulation applied to support risk-based decision making in electricity distribution networks,” in 2015 IEEE Eindhoven PowerTech, Eindhoven, Netherlands, 2015, pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1109/PTC.2015.7232494 .

E. Duarte et al., “A practical approach to condition and risk based power transformer asset replacement,” in 2010 IEEE International Symposium on Electrical Insulation, San Diego, CA, USA, 2010, pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1109/ELINSL.2010.5549580 .

Y. Shiwen, H. Hui, W. Chengzhi, G. Hao, and F. Hao, “Review on Risk Assessment of Power System,” Procedia Computer Science, vol. 109, pp. 1200-1205, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2017.05.399 .

М. В. Костерєв, і Є. І. Бардик, Питання побудови нечітких моделей оцінки технічного стану об’єктів електричних систем. Київ, Україна: НТУУ «КПІ», 2011.

R. M. A. Velásquez, and J. V. M. Lara, “Expert system for power transformer diagnosis,” in 2017 IEEE XXIV International Conference on Electronics, Electrical Engineering and Computing (INTERCON), Cusco, Peru, 2017, pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1109/INTERCON.2017.8079640 .

E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, and E. Gagleoti, “A probabilistic approach for operational risk assessment of power systems,” CIGRE, pp. 4-114, 2008.

A. M. Leite da Silva, L. S. Rezende, L. A. F. Manso and G. J. Anders, “Transmission expansion planning: A discussion on reliability and “N-1” security criteria,” 2010 IEEE 11th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, Singapore, 2010, pp. 244-251. https://doi.org/10.1109/PMAPS.2010.5528652 .

E. Handschin, I. Jürgens, C. Neumann, and C. Rehtanz, “Long term optimization for risk-oriented asset management,” in 16th Power Systems Computation Conference, Glasgow, Scotland, 2008, pp. 1316-1322.

B. Wang, Y. Li, and J. Watada, “A New MOPSO to Solve a Multi-Objective Portfolio Selection Model with Fuzzy Value-at-Risk,” in Knowledge-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems – 15th International Conference, Kaiserslautern, Germany, 2011, pp. 217-226. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23854-3_23 .

H. Yang, Z. Zhang, and X. Yin, “A novel method of decision-making for power transformer maintenance based on failure-probability-analysis,” IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 689-695, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/tee.22618 .

E. Bardyk and N. Bolotnyi, “Parametric identification of fuzzy model for power transformer based on real operation data,” Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, vol. 6, no. 8 (90), pp. 4-10, 2017. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2017.118632 .

T. L. Saaty, “Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process,” International journal of services sciences, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 83-98, 2008.

Є. І. Бардик, «Моделювання та оцінка ризику відмов електрообладнання електроенергетичних систем з урахуванням рівня відновлення ресурсу після ремонту,» Науковий вісник Національного гірничого університету, № 3, с. 82-90, 2014.

E. I. Bardyk, and N. P. Bolotnyi, “Electric power system simulation for risk assessment of power transformer failure under external short-circuit conditions,” in 2017 IEEE First Ukraine Conference on Electrical and Computer Engineering (UKRCON), Kyiv, Ukraine, 2017, pp. 452-456. https://doi.org/10.1109/UKRCON.2017.8100527 .

E. I. Bardyk, “Models of reliability assessing of electricity supply of auxiliary NPP from external sources with fuzzy defined parameters of failures of equipments,” Proceedings of the Institute of Electrodynamics of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, vol. 37, pp. 34-38, 2014.

E. Bardyk, and N. Bolotnyi, “Development of a mathematical model for cost distribution of maintenance and repair of electrical equipment,” Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, vol. 6, no. 8 (96), pp. 6-16, 2018. https://doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2018.147622.

Downloads

Abstract views: 223

Published

2021-04-30

How to Cite

[1]
Y. I. Bardyk, M. P. . Bolotnyi, and O. L. . Bondarenko, “Determination of Disruption Risk of the Normal Regime of the Electric Power System under Planned and Emergency Decommissioning of Electrical Equipment”, Вісник ВПІ, no. 2, pp. 54–62, Apr. 2021.

Issue

No. 2 (2021)

Section

ENERGY GENERATION, ELECTRIC ENGINEERING AND ELECTROMECHANICS

Metrics

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  • Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication.
  • Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
  • Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).