Mathematical Modeling of Volumes Forecasting of Construction Waste Production in Different Countries of the World

Abstract

Construction waste can be widely used in construction: as a filler and binder for the production of concrete, dry mixtures and other building materials, for the production of building materials with protective properties, etc. Tstudy of the volume of construction waste in different countries around the world by planning a second-order experiment by the Box-Wilson method using rotatable central compositional planning using the developed software, which is protected by a certificate of the work. The aim of the study is to determine by planning a regression model to predict the production of construction waste in different countries from the main parameters of influence. The regression dependence of forecasting the volume of construction waste production in different countries of the world on the main parameters of influence: population density, gross domestic product per capita, human development index, average latitude of the country. It is established that according to Fisher's criterion the hypothesis about the adequacy of the obtained regression model can be considered correct with 95 % reliability. The correlation coefficient was 0,99475, which indicates sufficient reliability of the obtained results. The obtained regression dependence can be used when developing a strategy for construction waste management. It was established that among the factors of influence that were considered, the volume of gross domestic product per capita has the greatest impact on the volume of construction waste production, and the index of human development has the least. The response surfaces of the target function are constructed - the volumes of construction waste production in different countries of the world and their two-dimensional cross-sections in the planes of impact parameters.