INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF CORRECTIONS MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING

Authors

  • P. O. Chernenko Institute of Electrodynamics of НАН of Ukraine, Kyiv
  • O. V. Martyniuk Institute of Electrodynamics of НАН of Ukraine, Kyiv

Keywords:

енергооб’єднання, споживання електроенергії, середньострокове прогнозування, уточнення прогнозу, середньодобова температура

Abstract

The paper considers the problem of refinement of forecast the electricity consumption of power system for the current month, executed through a program set the medium-term forecasting. A methodology, an algorithm and program for specifi-cation forecast electricity consumption is developed. The algorithm takes into account the value of the actual daily electrical power system, actual and predicted values of the average daily air temperature, power consumption of energy-intensive enterprises, intermonth temperature trend and weekly cycles of daily electricity consumption of the Ukrainian power system. Conducted on real data of Ukrainian power systems multiple calculations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method of refinement of the forecast electricity consumption.

Author Biographies

P. O. Chernenko, Institute of Electrodynamics of НАН of Ukraine, Kyiv

Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Professor, Leading Research Worker, Department of Modeling of Power Objects and Systems

O. V. Martyniuk, Institute of Electrodynamics of НАН of Ukraine, Kyiv

Cand. Sc. (Eng.), Senior Research Fellow, Department of Modeling of Power Objects and Systems

References

1. Повышение эффективности планирования режимов энергообъединения с использованием комплекса среднесроч-
ного прогнозирования / [П. А.Черненко, А. В.Мартынюк, А. И. Заславский, К. Б. Денисевич] // Электрические сети и
системы. — 2009. — № 5 — С. 21—35.
2. Черненко П. О. Уточнення прогнозу місячного електроспоживання енергооб’єднання / П. О. Черненко, О. В. Мар-
тинюк // Технічна електродинаміка. — 2010. — № 1 — С. 67—72.
3. Черненко П. О. Середньострокове дворівневе прогнозування електричного споживання енергооб’єднання /
П. О. Черненко, О. В. Мартинюк // Вісник Вінницького політехнічного інституту. — 2008. — №. 6. — С. 77—81.

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How to Cite

[1]
P. O. Chernenko and O. V. Martyniuk, “INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF CORRECTIONS MONTHLY CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING”, Вісник ВПІ, no. 1, pp. 77–81, Feb. 2014.

Issue

No 1 (2014)

Section

Energy generation and electrical engineering

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