Dynamics of the prevalence of municipal solid waste management methods in the EU

Abstract

Determining regression dependencies that describe the dynamics of the prevalence of methods for handling municipal solid waste is an urgent scientific and technical task, as one of the components for solving the problem of creating a scientific and technical basis for designing highly efficient working bodies of machines for cleaning and primary processing of municipal solid waste. The purpose of the study is to determine the regression dependencies that describe the dynamics of the prevalence of methods for handling municipal solid waste. Among the main methods of handling municipal solid waste, the following were considered: landfill, incineration, recycling, and composting. During the study, the method of regression analysis of the results of one-factor experiments and other paired dependencies was used with the choice of the best type of function from the 16 most common options according to the criterion of the maximum correlation coefficient. The regression was performed on the basis of linearizing transformations that allow reducing the nonlinear dependence to a linear one. The coefficients of the regression equations were determined using the least squares method using the developed computer program "Reganaliz", which is protected by a certificate of registration of the copyright to the work. Adequate regression dependencies were obtained that describe the dynamics of General methods of handling municipal solid waste and allow predicting the prevalence of such methods of waste management as landfill, incineration, recycling, and composting. Graphical dependencies describing the dynamics of the prevalence of municipal solid waste management methods are constructed and allow us to clearly illustrate this dynamics and show sufficient convergence of theoretical and actual results. It was found that the prevalence of disposal of municipal solid waste decreases linearly, incineration-increases hyperbolically, processing and composting-increases linearly. At the same time, the prevalence of municipal solid waste incineration increases most intensively. It is predicted that the prevalence of solid waste management methods will increase in the EU in 2021: landfill ― 14,15 %, incineration ― 40,32 %, recycling ― 34,19 %, composting ― 19,74 %.