Autoregressive Models for the Recovery and Development of War-Damaged Power Industry of Ukraine

Abstract

Method for adjusting the reconstruction and development plan of Ukraine's power industry, developed in the work “National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine. Project for the Recovery Plan of Ukraine. Section 'Energy Security,' 2022, 164 p.” has been proposed, adapting it to the conditions that arose after the bombing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure by Russian aggressors. Primary deterministic and adjusted mathematical models have been synthesized, which take into account the state of Ukraine's power industry at the time of writing this work. Since the idea of using autoregressive models instead of the adjusted mathematical models was only mentioned in the work “Synthesis of Mathematical Models for the Process of Recovery and Development of Ukraine's Power Industry, Approximated to the Realities of Wartime. Bulletin of Vinnytsia Polytechnic Institute, 2023” and was presented in a general form, a year after the writing of that work, during the course of Ukraine's war with Russian invaders, Ukraine's power infrastructure suffered additional damage, necessitating the synthesis of autoregressive models in a completed form, ready for use by electrical engineers in project work. Thus, in this work, autoregressive models of the processes of recovery and development of Ukraine's power industry, adapted to the realities of wartime, have been synthesized, and the choice of the autoregression class, their order, and the ranges of white noise impulse generation, which distort the deterministic base mathematical models, has been substantiated.